Regelmatig worden er opiniepeilingen gehouden onder de Palestijnse bevolking in Gaza en de Westoever. Dit zijn de resultaten van de laatste peilingen.

Ik pik er een aantal punten uit:

83% van de Palestijnen is voor het staakt-het-vuren.
Driekwart van de bevolking is voor vredesonderhandelingen met Israel, wat niet wil zeggen dat ze erg optimistisch zijn over wat er nu gebeurt. 61,9% vindt dat ze niet veel opschieten met de onderhandelingen tussen Abbas en Olmert. Wat betreft de mogelijke oplossing is een meerderheid, 59,8% nog steeds voor een twee-staten oplossing, een Palestijnse staat naast Israel, maar een flinke minderheid, 30,4% ziet meer in één staat voor twee volken, met gelijke rechten en een evenredige politieke vertegenwoordiging. En belangrijke kanttekening wordt wel gemaakt: bijna negentig procent is niet bereid het ‘recht op terugkeer’ van de vluchtelingen op te geven, zelfs niet in ruil voor ‘vrede’ en een overeenkomst over een Palestijnse staat. Nog geen 8% zou een overeenkomst accepteren die het vluchtelingenprobleem buiten beschouwing laat.

56% van de Palestijnen vindt dat er geen zelfmoordaanslagen in Israel gepleegd moeten worden. Maar 41,4% vindt dat ze voortgezet moeten worden.

Driekwart van de Palestijnen zou nieuwe verkiezingen willen hebben om de Wetgevende Raad (het parlement) te kiezen. En bijna 70% wil nieuwe presidentsverkiezingen. Daarbij zou Abbas het nog van Haniye winnen, maar tegelijk is 54,3% niet erg tevreden met de resultaten die Abbas boekt. Het grootste deel van de bevolking vindt het verkeerd dat het tot een splitsing is gekomen, 32,9% geeft daarvan Hamas de schuld, 15,5% zegt Fatah, maar de grootste groep, 41,6% zegt: daar hebben alletwee schuld aan.

De bron: het PCPO, hier

Poll No. 165
Date: 18 June, 2008

The most recent poll of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has revealed that:

(83.0 %) of the Palestinians support at present the Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire.
(56.0 %) oppose the suicide bombings inside Israel.
(32.9 %) hold Hamas responsible for the schism of the authority between Gaza Strip and the West Bank, (15.5 %) blame Fateh for that.
(59.8 %) support the two-state solution as the favored solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
(54.3 %) are dissatisfied with the performance of the PA President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas.
(89.8 %) oppose the waiver of the Right of Home Return.
Beit Sahour – The Information Section:

In the most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period from 25th May to 31st May 2008, a random sample consisting of (1051) Palestinian adults over 18 years old representing the various demographic specimen in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, were face-to-face interviewed. The poll results unveiled that (83.0 %) of the Palestinian public support at present the Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire. Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, declared that the most significant finding in this poll is that (56.0 %) of the Palestinians oppose at present the suicide bombings inside Israel and added that (32.9 %) hold Hamas responsible for the schism of the authority between Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Dr. Kukali pointed out that the rate of the Palestinians supporting the holding of the PLC-elections has increased by (20.8 %) in comparison with a poll published in March 2007. Regarding the future of the Palestinian state, Dr. Kukali said that “a majority of the Palestinians (59.8 %), support the two-state solution as the favored solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and (30.4 %) believe that a bi-national state on the territories of the whole historic Palestine would be the preferable solution. Dr. Kukali added: “in view of these results, we perceive that the Palestinian public opinion has remarkably shifted from the solution of “the secular democratic state” on the whole Palestinian territories to the acceptance of the two-state solution as to pull out Israel from the west Bank and Gaza Strip. Dr. Kukali also mentioned that “a vast majority of the Palestinians believe that a lasting solution with Israel would be impossible and impractical without a radical solution to the refugees’ problem. Leaning on the results of this poll, we believe that a lasting, comprehensive and just peace will only be possible with the settlement of the refugees’ issue.

A Palestinian – Israeli truce:

Responding to the question: “What’s your attitude towards a Palestinian – Israeli truce at present?” (42.9 %) answered “I strongly support it”, (40.1 %) “I somewhat support it”, (9.0 %) “I somewhat oppose it”, (6.3 %) “I strongly oppose it” and (1.7 %) answered “I don’t know”.

The suicide bombings:

(53.8 %) of the Palestinians are of the opinion that the suicide bombings harm at present the Palestinian national interests, whilst (40.7 %) think that these are of benefit and (4.5 %) declined to give an answer. Regarding the suicide bombings inside the Israeli territory, (56.0 %) are in favor of their halt at present, whilst (41.4%) are for their continuance and (2.6 %) hesitated to answer.

Deployment of multinational forces:

Responding to the question:” Do you support or oppose the deployment of multinational forces in Gaza Strip ?”, (33.4 %) answered ” strongly oppose”, (26.7 %) “somewhat oppose”, (24.0 %) ” somewhat support”, (10.3 %) “strongly support” and (0.4 %) answered ” I don’t know “.

Elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council:

In regard to the question: “Do you support polling at present for a new Palestinian Legislative Council?” (42.9 %) answered “I strongly support”, (32.6 %) “I somewhat support”, (12.5 %) “I somewhat oppose”, (11.2 %) “I strongly oppose” and (0.6 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Evaluation of the performance of the PA President:

(54.3 %) of the Palestinians are dissatisfied with the way Mr. Mahmoud Abbas is running his post as President of the Palestinian Authority, whilst (39.1 %) said that they are satisfied and (6.6 %) refused to respond to the question.

The PA Presidency Elections:

Responding to the question: “Do you support the holding of PA Presidency elections at present”, (36.8 %) said they “strongly support that”, (32.3 %) “somewhat support that”, (19.0 %) “somewhat oppose that”, (10.3 %) “strongly oppose that” and (1.6 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Regarding the question:” If new PA Presidency elections would be held now, and Mr. Mahmoud Abbas would candidate for Fateh, and Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh would candidate for Hamas. For whom would you vote ?”, (40.7 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (18.6 %) “for Ismael Haniyyeh”, (34.5 %) “wouldn’t participate in the elections” and (6.2 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Responding to the question: ” Should the two rivals, Mr. Marwan Barghouthi for Fateh and Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh for Hamas, run the presidential elections, for whom would you vote ?”, (42.8 %) said “for Marwan Barghouthi”, (18.1 %) “for Ismael Haniyyeh”, (34.0 %) “wouldn’t participate in the elections” and
(5.1 %) said “I don’t know”.

The peace negotiations with Israel:

With respect to the question: ” Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the peace negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis ?”, (24.5 %) said “I strongly support that”, (49.6 %) “I somewhat support that”, (13.2 %) “I somewhat oppose that”, (12.3 %) “I strongly oppose that” and (0.4 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Responding to the question: “What are your expectations that the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, which are initiated by Annapolis International Peace Conference, would succeed ?

Would these negotiations succeed or fail to end the occupation ?”, only (3.9 %) answered “will certainly succeed”, (27.6 %) ” may be they will succeed”, (36.9 %) “may be they will fail”, (30.1 %) “will certainly fail” and (1.5 %) answered “I don’t know”.

(61.9 %) of the Palestinians believe that the meetings between the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, and the Israeli PM, Mr. Ehud Olmert, who is facing at the moment internal problems, are of no benefit, whilst (32.0 %) believe that they are of benefit, and (6.1 %) didn’t respond to the question.

The preferable Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict:

(59.8 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the two-states option is the preferable solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, whilst (30.4 %) believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided into two states. Subsequently, the bi-national state over the whole Palestine, in which Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights and representation quota, is the preferable one. (5.2 %) said that “there is no solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” and (4.6 %) declined to respond to the relevant question.

The Refugees’ Issue:

Responding to the question: “Do you believe that the Palestinians should be obliged to waive their right of home return in exchange for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the conclusion of a peace agreement with Israel ?”, (89.8 %) answered “Palestinians shouldn’t agree to that, even if the price would be the non-conclusion of an agreement with the Israelis”, whilst only (6.8 %) said “Palestinians should agree to that”, and (3.3 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Regarding the additional question:” Should the Palestinian leadership agree to the waiver of the Right of Home Return in exchange of the monetary compensation, would you accept or refuse that ?”, (89.5 %) answered “I would refuse that”, whilst only (7.3 %) said “I would accept that”, and (3.2 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Who is responsible for the continuation of the schism of the Authority ?

Responding to the question: “According to your opinion, one year after the schism of the authority between Gaza Strip and the West Bank, whom should be held responsible for the continuation of this schism ? Is it Hamas or Fateh ?” (32.9 %) said “Hamas”, (15.5 %) “Fateh”, (41.6 %) “both of them”, (6.9 %) “none of them” and (3.1 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study:

Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies’ Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (150) election sites, from which (110) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology.

Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.0 %) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (48.6%) against (51.4%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (60.7%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (39.3%) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (49.1%) for the towns, (32.4%) for the villages and (18.6%) for the camps.